The war between Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia has entered its most serious phase since the 2022 truce, with the Houthis expanding their control along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, attacking Saudi targets with missiles and drones, and Riyadh preparing a major military offensive to push the group away from the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The renewed conflict has transformed Yemen into a major regional flashpoint, with consequences extending beyond the Arabian Peninsula as fighting threatens commercial shipping, oil infrastructure, food supplies and one of the world’s most important maritime corridors.
Saudi Arabia entered Yemen’s civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition supporting the internationally recognised Yemeni government after the Houthis seized Sanaa. A UN-mediated truce in 2022 largely halted cross-border attacks, but the ceasefire has unravelled this year amid renewed Houthi-Saudi hostilities.
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The latest escalation accelerated in September when the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks against several locations in southern Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities said the attacks caused casualties and damage to energy facilities, while the Houthis described their operations as retaliation for Saudi military action in Yemen.
The Houthis subsequently made a major territorial advance along Yemen’s western coastline. On September 10, the group seized the strategic port city of Mokha and the following day captured Perim Island, which lies in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The group has since established control over much of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, dramatically altering the military and strategic balance.
Bab el-Mandeb has now become the central prize in the confrontation. The narrow waterway connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and is a major route for trade between Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East. Its importance has increased further because the Strait of Hormuz, on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula, has been severely disrupted by the wider Iran conflict.
For the Houthis, control of the Red Sea coast provides military depth, economic leverage and a strategic bargaining position. The group has also used attacks on Saudi military and economic targets to impose pressure on Riyadh and demand an end to Saudi military operations and restrictions affecting Houthi-held areas.
For Saudi Arabia, however, allowing the Houthis to consolidate their position around Bab el-Mandeb would create a major security and economic problem. Riyadh is seeking to protect its territory, oil infrastructure and shipping routes while restoring the position of the internationally recognised Yemeni government.
Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia is preparing an offensive involving Yemeni forces under Riyadh’s command, supported by Saudi air power and intelligence assistance from the United States. Options reportedly include a focused operation around Bab el-Mandeb or a broader offensive involving several Yemeni fronts. More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could potentially be mobilised, depending on the scale of the operation.
The United States is providing intelligence and other non-combat support but, according to current reporting, is not expected to participate directly in the planned Saudi ground offensive. Turkey, Pakistan and European partners are also providing various forms of military or defensive assistance, according to officials cited by Reuters.
The Houthi-Saudi confrontation has meanwhile expanded into a missile and drone war targeting Saudi Arabia’s military and economic infrastructure.
On October 3, the Houthis claimed they attacked a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh with ballistic missiles and drones, describing the operation as retaliation for Saudi strikes in Yemen.
Reuters reported that a witness saw smoke and fire near an Aramco facility, although Saudi authorities and Aramco had not confirmed that the facility had been attacked or damaged at the time of reporting.
The Houthis had also claimed attacks on Aramco installations in Yanbu. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted six ballistic missiles directed towards the Taif and Yanbu areas but did not report damage to critical infrastructure from that incident.
The attacks have raised concerns about the security of Saudi oil production and exports. Any sustained disruption of Saudi energy infrastructure could have consequences for international oil markets, particularly at a time when shipping through Hormuz is already severely affected.
The humanitarian consequences inside Yemen are becoming increasingly severe.
According to the World Health Organization, 4,481 casualties, including 838 deaths, had been recorded since August 6 as of September 29. WHO said the figures were based on data supplied by Yemen’s Health Ministry in Aden, and warned that the health system was approaching breaking point.
Nine health facilities had been damaged, closed or attacked, while emergency obstetric and newborn services had been suspended in two hospitals because medical personnel were being redirected towards trauma care. Even before the latest escalation, only about 60 per cent of Yemen’s health facilities were fully functional.
Displacement has also surged. UN agencies said more than 152,000 people had been displaced in recent weeks, with many families fleeing repeatedly from fighting around Taiz, Aden and other areas. More than 3,700 Yemenis had also crossed the Bab el-Mandeb to Djibouti, adding pressure to already stretched humanitarian facilities.
The food crisis is becoming particularly alarming. The World Food Programme said nearly three out of four households in government-controlled areas where it can operate are now unable to meet their basic food requirements. Wheat-flour prices in parts of Taiz rose by about 10 per cent in only two weeks, while supplies of vegetable oil were also disrupted.
Yemen is particularly vulnerable because it imports approximately 90 per cent of the food it consumes. Disruption to ports, roads and maritime routes therefore has an immediate impact on food prices and availability. WFP said it needed about $109 million urgently to support 152,000 newly displaced people and the 1.4 million people already receiving assistance.
The economic consequences extend beyond Yemen.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a critical route for international commerce, and renewed fighting around the waterway threatens the movement of food, fuel and other commodities. The United Nations has warned that restrictions around Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz could increase global energy and food prices, with developing countries particularly vulnerable to the effects.
The conflict therefore has the potential to create a chain reaction: fighting disrupts ports and shipping; shipping companies face greater security and insurance costs; vessels may be diverted onto longer routes; transportation costs rise; and those increases can eventually reach consumers through higher prices for fuel, food and other imported goods.
The stakes are particularly high for Saudi Arabia because Bab el-Mandeb has become an increasingly important alternative route for oil exports while Hormuz remains severely disrupted. Analysts have therefore linked Riyadh’s military planning directly to the need to regain control of the Red Sea corridor and prevent the Houthis from using it as economic leverage.
The conflict also has a wider geopolitical dimension. The Houthis are closely aligned with Iran, while Saudi Arabia is a major US partner in the Gulf. The struggle over Yemen is consequently connected to the broader confrontation involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States and control of strategic waterways across the Middle East.
The two sides are therefore pursuing fundamentally different objectives.
The Houthis seek to preserve their territorial gains, maintain control over areas they already hold, pressure Saudi Arabia to halt military operations and secure political and economic concessions. Control of the Red Sea coastline and access to Bab el-Mandeb gives them additional leverage in any future negotiations.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, wants to prevent the Houthis from consolidating control over Bab el-Mandeb, protect its territory and energy infrastructure, restore the strategic position of the internationally recognised Yemeni government and reduce the threat posed by Houthi missiles and drones.
The immediate danger is that these competing objectives could make negotiations more difficult while encouraging both sides to strengthen their military positions.
Yemeni government forces are already fighting to regain territory around Taiz and other areas. On October 3, government forces claimed to have conducted hundreds of strikes against Houthi positions and inflicted heavy casualties, although the reported figures could not be independently verified.
The United Nations has repeatedly called for protection of civilians, unrestricted humanitarian access and a return to negotiations. It has also warned that the renewed conflict threatens to reverse the limited stability achieved after the 2022 truce.
With more than 22 million Yemenis already dependent on humanitarian assistance, the renewed fighting risks deepening one of the world’s longest-running humanitarian crises. At the same time, the struggle for Bab el-Mandeb means the consequences are no longer confined to Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
The central question now is whether Saudi Arabia’s planned counteroffensive can reverse the Houthi advance without triggering a wider regional war. A major battle around Bab el-Mandeb could simultaneously intensify Yemen’s humanitarian emergency, threaten international shipping and place further pressure on global food and energy markets.
The conflict remains highly fluid, with the Houthis holding important positions along the Red Sea coast, Saudi Arabia preparing a major military response and civilians bearing much of the immediate cost of the escalating war.