As fighting between Israel, the United States, and Iran stretches into a potentially prolonged confrontation, analysts are warning that time may favor Tehran, even as the humanitarian toll rises sharply in neighboring Lebanon.
More than 65,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon, according to government officials, underscoring how the widening conflict is reshaping both the military and civilian landscape of the region.
“Time Is on Iran’s Side”
Ali Alizadeh, a political analyst and host on Jedaal TV, argues that Iran’s military doctrine is built for endurance rather than short, decisive battles.
Iran, he says, relies heavily on domestically produced, low-cost missiles and drones designed to overwhelm more sophisticated and far more expensive Western air defense systems.
“You have to consider that Iranian defence strategy is built on producing very cheap missiles and drones compared to Western systems,” Alizadeh said from London. “If this war becomes longer, it could benefit Iran.”
He pointed to last year’s brief but intense confrontation between Israel and Iran as evidence that even short conflicts strain defensive stockpiles and civilian morale.
A drawn-out war, he suggests, would test how long Israel and the United States can sustain the high financial and logistical costs of advanced missile interception systems.
The longer the conflict continues, the more pressure could mount on Israeli civilians facing repeated missile alerts and on U.S. regional bases requiring constant protection.
Alizadeh also echoed a growing view among some commentators that Washington may have underestimated Iran’s resilience. He described the Iranian state as adaptable and capable of absorbing sustained military and economic pressure.
Lebanon’s Growing Humanitarian Crisis
While military analysts debate long-term strategy, civilians in Lebanon are already bearing the consequences.
Lebanese Social Affairs Minister Haneen Sayed told Al Jazeera Media Network that more than 65,000 displaced people have registered in government shelters following recent Israeli strikes.
She added that an additional 10,000 to 20,000 people may have fled but are staying with relatives or are still registering for assistance.
“It is not a good situation. People are worried,” Sayed said, noting that memories of the 2024 war with Israel marked by daily drone activity and explosions remain vivid for many Lebanese families.
The displacement is straining Lebanon’s already fragile public services and economy. The government has reiterated that it considers the independent military operations of Hezbollah illegal and says its long-term goal is to assert full state authority over all Lebanese territory a sensitive political objective amid renewed conflict.
A War of Attrition?
Military observers say the conflict may evolve into a war of attrition, where endurance matters more than immediate battlefield gains.
Israel and the United States retain overwhelming airpower and technological superiority. Iran, however, has invested for years in asymmetric warfare capabilities including vast missile and drone inventories designed to offset conventional disadvantages.
If the confrontation becomes prolonged, analysts warn that:
Missile defense stockpiles could face sustained pressure, Economic costs could mount for all sides, Civilian displacement and infrastructure damage could expand and Regional instability could deepen.
For now, diplomacy remains limited and fighting continues across multiple fronts.