Ethiopia has taken a series of major diplomatic measures against Eritrea and Egypt amid escalating security tensions in the Horn of Africa, closing its embassy in Asmara, expelling 10 Eritrean diplomats and ordering an Egyptian diplomat to leave the country within 48 hours.
The developments have pushed Ethiopia’s relations with its two neighbours into a new phase of tension, coming as renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia raises fears of a wider regional conflict.
Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the closure of its embassy in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats, including the country’s chargé d’affaires and officials accredited to the African Union, persona non grata.
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The diplomats were ordered to leave Ethiopia within 48 hours.
Addis Ababa accused the Eritrean diplomats of involvement in activities that posed a direct threat to Ethiopia’s national security and described Eritrea’s conduct as involving direct and indirect acts of hostility and belligerence.
Eritrea immediately rejected Ethiopia’s allegations and responded by severing all diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.
Asmara said it had “no option” but to reciprocate after Ethiopia closed its embassy and expelled its diplomats, accusing Addis Ababa in turn of pursuing hostile policies towards Eritrea.
The diplomatic rupture represents a major reversal in relations between the two countries, which had experienced a dramatic rapprochement after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in Ethiopia in 2018.
The latest crisis is unfolding alongside renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia involving federal forces and an armed opposition alliance led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
Ethiopian authorities have accused Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of supporting the opposition alliance. The three countries have rejected the allegations.
The Ethiopian government has also taken direct diplomatic action against Egypt.
On Thursday, Addis Ababa declared Egyptian diplomatic staff member Ahmed Moharam Ahmed Soliman persona non grata and ordered him to leave Ethiopia within 48 hours.
The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry said the decision was taken under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations but did not publicly provide a specific reason for the expulsion.
Egypt responded by declaring an Ethiopian embassy counsellor persona non grata and ordering him to leave Egypt within 48 hours.
The reciprocal expulsions have further strained relations between Cairo and Addis Ababa, which have already been locked in a long-running dispute over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile.
Egypt has repeatedly demanded binding guarantees over the operation of the dam, citing its dependence on the Nile, while Ethiopia regards the project as essential to its electricity generation and economic development.
The Nile dispute has increasingly become intertwined with broader competition over influence and security in the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia’s landlocked status and its repeated calls for reliable access to the Red Sea have also contributed to the deterioration of relations with Eritrea.
Eritrea controls a strategically important stretch of Red Sea coastline, while Ethiopian officials have repeatedly stressed the country’s need for maritime access.
Asmara has interpreted some of Addis Ababa’s statements on sea access as a potential threat to Eritrean sovereignty.
The latest diplomatic rupture therefore involves several overlapping disputes: the renewed conflict in Tigray, Ethiopia’s demand for Red Sea access, the Nile and GERD dispute with Egypt, and competing regional security alliances.
The current situation is particularly sensitive because Eritrea supported Ethiopian federal forces during the 2020–2022 Tigray war, but relations between the former allies subsequently deteriorated.
The Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war in 2022 did not include Eritrea, and tensions between Asmara and Addis Ababa continued to increase.
Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has now raised concerns that the Horn of Africa could again face a wider conflict involving neighbouring states.
The situation escalated further after explosions were reported in Addis Ababa, while fighting continued in parts of northern Ethiopia. Ethiopian authorities have also imposed restrictions on drone flights around the capital amid concerns over attacks by opposition forces.
The African Union has expressed concern over the rapidly deteriorating situation.
The AU Commission has called on Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise maximum restraint and avoid actions or statements that could further undermine regional peace and stability.
The continental body urged the countries to resolve their differences through established diplomatic channels and peaceful dialogue.
The developments have consequently transformed what initially appeared to be a bilateral Ethiopia-Eritrea dispute into a broader regional diplomatic crisis involving Egypt and potentially Sudan.
For Ethiopia, the immediate confrontation centres on what Addis Ababa describes as threats to its national security and alleged foreign support for armed opposition groups.
For Eritrea, the diplomatic break is a rejection of Ethiopia’s accusations and a response to what Asmara considers hostile policies, particularly concerning Red Sea access.
For Egypt, the crisis is connected to its longstanding concerns over the Nile, the GERD and the changing balance of power in the Horn of Africa.
Although the latest diplomatic measures have not amounted to a declaration of war by any of the countries involved, the combination of diplomatic expulsions, the Ethiopia-Eritrea break, renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia and competing regional alliances has significantly raised the stakes.
The immediate challenge for the African Union and other regional actors will be to prevent the Ethiopia-Eritrea confrontation and the Ethiopia-Egypt diplomatic dispute from becoming interconnected military crises.
The Horn of Africa now faces a volatile combination of renewed Ethiopian internal conflict, Ethiopia-Eritrea diplomatic rupture, Egypt-Ethiopia tensions over the Nile and GERD, and competing interests over Red Sea access.